Wednesday, 19 September 2012

Rankings - Still Just Guesswork?

In his latest power rankings column on SI.com, Andy Staples is most accurate when he says: "We're still just guessing.". There is still far too much uncertainty over how good everyone is, and even over the value of wins that teams already have.

Take the number 1 team, Alabama, for example. On the face of it they have impressive wins over Michigan and Arkansas. But how good were they? The Big 10 may be struggling this year (see here for example) so it remains to be seen how good Michigan actually are, and hence the value of Alabama's win. And as for the Arkansas win, well they are clearly not as good as was anticipated by many.

Another example of the guesswork is the low position of Stanford in 21st after week 2. This was based on their performance last year and the assumption that they couldn't be that good after losing several starters including Andrew Luck, arguably the best Quarterback prospect in years. Then they beat USC who were ranked 2nd. But was that ranking accurate? How good are USC?

I'm not going to claim that Alabama aren't the best team or that Stanford won;t end up ranked around 20th though. Just that as yet things aren't clear enough and there is far too much guesswork going on.

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