Looking ahead to week 14 - Championship Week

With just next weeks big game between Jackson State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff to come, oh and the Army-Navy game, this week is the end of the regular season. A week dominated by conference championship games though there are many other issues to decide. Here are some of the games I'm looking forward to, although this has been one of the easier weeks to pick them:

• Alabama vs Georgia - the biggest game of the week. Effectively we have a 3-team playoff this year with these two facing each other in a semi-final for the right to play the top seed. And there's the small matter of the SEC Championship on the line.
• Texas at Kansas State - Kansas State are unlucky in that they have fallen off many people's radar at the wrong time. They lost then had a week off right at the end of the season. Can they finish the season 12-1 and win the Big 12?
• Kent State vs Northern Illinois - Could Kent State really break into the BCS bowls? A MAC team?
• Louisville at Rutgers - a Big East decider between 2 teams who soon won't be in the Big East.
• UCLA at Stanford - there's a good argument that Stanford are finishing the season as well as anyone. Can they win the Pac-12?
• Nebraska vs Wisconsin - Officially a Big 10 championship game. In reality it will decide the second best team in the Big 10.
• Florida State vs Georgia Tech - The ACC has had a bad couple of weeks but the addition of Louisville is a good step in the right direction. A good championship game would be another. What they really need though are some notable bowl wins.

Some thoughts on week 13, the end of the season for some

Firstly I want to get off my chest an issue I have with ESPN America's choice of game this week. Of the 3 games they showed, I agree with their first and third choices (Michigan at Ohio State and Notre Dame at USC) but the second game I cannot understand their choice. The Iron Bowl was on despite it looking in advance like a one-sided game, and the Civil War, Bedlam and Florida at Florida State all being played at the same time. Any one of those 3 would have been a better choice.

Now, onto my thoughts on the games themselves...

• Congratulations to Ohio State on their unbeaten season. There are a few caveats but remaining unbeaten is still an impressive achievement.
• Congratulations also to Notre Dame on their unbeaten (so far) season. They are essentially a very good all round team. There are no areas of weakness on the team and they know how to win games.
• When was the last time the pre-season number 1 ended the season unranked? Or the end of season number 1 starting unranked? I've started going back through the rankings (got to 1995 so far) but can't find an example of either. This year we could have both.
• USC's back-up Quarterback Max Wittek looked promising in his first start. He's certainly got a strong arm, just a pity Marqise Lee didn't spot his long passes a couple of times.
• Should Florida be in the top 2? There is a good argument that they are the best SEC team this season. There are 3 1-loss teams in the SEC and they are the unfortunate team to miss out on the SEC Championship game. Yet they've got the best body of work of any team, as reflected by their top ranking in the computers. On Saturday they went to (probably) the best team in the ACC and basically bullied them up front. So will the best team in the SEC miss out?
• The ACC has had a horrible week. As well as losing Maryland, they had 4 games against the SEC and lost them all. They are not going to be high up the rankings until they get some high profile wins in non-conference or bowl games.
• Johnny Manziel - just give him the Heisman now.
• The Iron Bowl was horrible to watch, so why did ESPN America inflict it on us?. Far, far too easy for Alabama. How have Auburn become so bad so quickly?
• Bedlam, 500 yards from 71 attempts by Landry Jones. Nuts.

Looking ahead to week 13, a final chance for some

After the upheaval of the last 2 weeks at the top, things should be clarified a bit more this week. I say should because if Notre Dame lose then all sorts of arguments begin. A few thoughts on what I'll be looking out for this week.

• Notre Dame at USC - simply a win for the Irish and their in the BCS title game. But, USC isn't a walkover. They are very capable of winning this game, even though they've shown no signs of winning the big games this year. That said, I fully expect Notre Dame to win especially as Matt Barkley is out.
• Florida at Florida State - this is the most interesting game of the weekend, so why are ESPN America showing the Iron Bowl instead? If Florida win, then they will probably finish the season ranked number 1 by the computers and could be a Notre Dame loss away from the BCS title game. A Florida State win would put them back in the conversation and also give a much needed boost to the ACC.
• Michigan at Ohio State - can Ohio State remain undefeated? If so, and other results go their way, could they end up ranked 1 in the AP poll and we have a split national title?
• Oregon at Oregon State - will Oregon bounce back from their loss to Stanford? They need some help (mainly from Pac-12 south teams) but aren't out of it yet.
• Stanford at UCLA - This game is big for 2 teams, Stanford and Oregon. UCLA are already in the Pac-12 championship game, so who do they want to play next week?
• South Carolina at Clemson - This could tell us a lot about the respective strengths of the ACC and SEC. Two teams of similar records and rankings but if the computers are right and the ACC is weak, this will be a win for South Carolina. If Clemson win, some reassessment may be needed which could help Florida State if they beat Florida and other results go their way.
• Auburn at Alabama - the only way Auburn can rescue anything from this season is by wrecking Alabama's. An unlikely win for Auburn could prevent Alabama from reaching both the SEC championship game and the BCS title game. But that's not why I'll be watching. I'll be watching because ESPN America think this is a better game than Florida at Florida State.
• There are also some other games I'll be looking for the result of such as Georgia Tech at Georgia, Missouri at Texas A&M and Oklahoma State at Oklahoma.

The most likely result of the weekend is that we will have a Notre Dame - SEC Champion title game in January. But a loss to Notre Dame changes all that. A Florida win and an all-SEC title game is then likely. But another twist is also possible. If either Alabama or Georgia lose this week, we could end up with a 2-loss SEC champion. Would a 1-loss Florida then get in, or another 1-loss team? After the last couple of weeks I'm expecting at least one of the top teams to lose, but I've no idea which one.

Some thoughts on week 12

Week 12 last year saw #2 Oklahoma State lose in double overtime at Iowa State, knocking them out of the national title game. This year it saw the top 2 teams lose, probably knocking both of them out of the title race. It was also a week in which the biggest winners, the SEC, essentially had a week off. Some thoughts on this and more.

• Stanford's defensive front 7 were immense. They slowed down Oregon's offence by containing their running game. This is the same thing that defeated Oregon when they met the SEC over the last couple of years. Auburn and LSU's defensive lines slowed them down. This is a tactic that's clearly effective against Oregon if you are capable of doing it. Few teams are but Stanford were this week.
• Have they found a new Andrew Luck in Kevin Hogan?
• Oregon had a clear run to the national title game, but could now miss out on both the Pac-12 championship game and any BCS bowl.
• Huge win for Baylor. We knew they had a good offence but this was still a massive shock.
• One possibility as a result of this - Florida could be a couple of results from playing for the national title.
• The rankings are now a bit of a mess. Who is the best 1-loss team? The voters say Alabama, the computers say Florida, there's a strong case for Oregon, and where are Florida State in all this? A win for them against Florida and in the ACC championship game and they have a strong case too.
• At the minute it looks like it will be Notre Dame vs the SEC Champion. But if Notre Dame loses, we'll have an almighty row over who should be in. And I'm not sure a 4 team play-off would solve things given the log-jam in the rankings behind Notre Dame at the moment. More teams in the play-off would be needed.
• Where would Ohio State be in all this if they were eligible?
• What's happened to USC and Matt Barkley this year? Towards the end of last season they looked very impressive. The end of the post season ban should have helped with recruiting but they seem to have gone backwards this year. It will be interesting to see where Barkley ends up in the NFL draft as he'd have likely been a first round pick had he gone early.
• Hopefully the SEC enjoyed their week off.
• More realignment. Stop it please, unless its for genuine sporting reasons and not just for money.

Looking ahead to week 12

Only a couple of games of the regular season left for most teams. After last weeks upset loss for Alabama (although I had thought it was possible) I'm struggling to see any problems this week for at least two of the three unbeaten teams at the top, with Oregon facing a tricky road game that could further upset things. Some thoughts on this:

• Notre Dame should have no problem with Wake Forest at home, and Kansas State should also win at Baylor. A loss for either of them this week would be the biggest upset of the season so far.
• Oregon face a much stiffer test. Stanford have a defence which could stop Oregon's running game. That, and the injuries Oregon have in defence, makes this a potential upset. Oregon should win, but then Alabama should have won last week.Oregon have had the easiest schedule of the top 3 so far, but face the hardest end to the season. Can they remain unbeaten?
• It's sometimes easy to forget that Ohio State are also still unbeaten. Their post-season ban, and the weakness of the Big 10 mean they aren't getting the attention they deserve. Urban Meyer has done an outstanding job to get them to this point. This week they face a good test on the road at Wisconsin.
• USC at UCLA promises to be high scoring, and will probably decide who wins the Pac-12 South.
• How will Alabama bounce back from last weeks loss? They don't5 exactly face the toughest opposition (West Carolina) but then neither do most of the SEC, many of whom seem to be trying to have a collective week off this week.

Some thoughts on week 11

Alabama's loss shakes things up a bit. Some thoughts on this and the rest of week 11:

• Is this the end of the SEC challenge for the title? Probably unless 2 of Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame lose a game. By adding Texas A&M, the SEC may lose the national title.
• Is the SEC paying a price for having too many good teams? There are 6 teams with 1 or 2 losses who have all beaten and lost to each other. Has this made the schedule too tough for anyone to remain undefeated?
• How good was Johnny Manziel? First time I've seen a full game and I was very impressed. His ability to extend the play and throw on the run both ways accuratley is brilliant.
• Another good solid win for both Kansas State and Notre Dame although neither really did anything more than that.
• Oregon were again impressive, though the next 2 games will test them more.
• Good win for Stanford. How their defence copes with Oregons offence next week should be interesting.
• As expected, Georgia wrapped up the SEC East title, and Auburn showed just how far they have fallen in the last 2 years.
• Florida got out of jail. They really shouldn't have needed to block a last minute punt to win that game. 
• Louisville and Alabama's loss means there are 4 undefeated teams remaining. It will be interesting to see where Ohio State are in the AP poll.
• And there was yet another basketball score game (Georgia Tech 68 North Carolina 50). There's been a few of those this season.
• My Current top 5 - Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia.   

A look ahead to week 11

We're now at the business end of the season. A single loss to any of several teams could make a big difference. Some thoughts on this weekends more notable games:

• Texas A&M at Alabama - after last weeks epic escape at LSU it would be very easy for Alabama to think this is an easier week. It might look it but Texas A&M are capable of an upset win. If they managed did it, they and Alabama would join a bunch of SEC teams at 1 or 2 losses who have beaten and lost to each other. That would probably be the end of any SEC challenge for the national title and create a mess at the top end of the rankings as voters try to separate out the group. The most likely outcome though, is an Alabama win and their march to Miami continuing.
• Kansas State at TCU - TCU are never an easy opponent so this is a tricky game for Kansas State. They should have enough as TCU are having a down year, but this may be the most likely upset this week amongst the 4 unbeateans at the top, especially as their is a doubt over Colin Kleins fitness.
• Notre Dame at Boston College - The Irish should have enough but then we thought the same of Oklahoma State at Iowa State at around the same time last year.
• Louisville at Syracuse - An AQ conference team unbeaten at this stage? Surely they will be in the national title conversation? But Louisville aren't even close. Mainly because of the perceived weakness of the Big East, but also because they haven't really had a tough schedule. Their opponents are a combined 28-56 so far. Can they keep this up till the end of the season and become the most underwhelming unbeaten team ever?
• Oregon at California - Tricky but probably Oregon's easiest game remaining.
• Oregon State at Stanford - Oregon's remaining opponents face each other. This should give us a good idea of who will be Oregon's toughest test.

Some thoughts on week 10

Despite a near miss for 2 of the unbeaten teams at the top of the rankings, and tough games for the other 2, we still have 4 teams clear and unbeaten at the top. Some thoughts on these, and other games this weekend:

• Alabama at LSU was every bit as good a game as expected, despite Alabama's offence going missing for 28 of the 30 minutes of the second half.
• LSU were the better team in this game but it is the sign of a very good team that they find a way to win even when they don't play well.
• Notre Dame got out of jail. They are becoming very good at winning close games. Also, good sides are lucky more often. Despite that, the impact of this game could well be Notre Dame missing out if there are more than 2 undefeated teams at the end of the season.
• Oregon had a very impressive win, demonstrating again just how dangerous their offence is. But for me this game raised a question mark against their defence. Is a defence that concedes 51 points a championship winning defence?
• A match-up I'd like to see is Oregon's offence against Alabama's defence.
• Kansas State are almost making it look routine. But the Colin Klein injury could be a worry.
• Will Muschamp has said Florida don't have much room for error. Well they certainly rode their luck this week. If James Franklin hadn't consistently overthrown the ball, Missouri would have won. But Florida remain on course for a final game with Florida State which should decide if they are in a BCS bowl, and they stay in position to take advantage of any slip up by Georgia.
• No sign of any slip by Georgia this week despite their slow start. Just Auburn to beat and they go to Atlanta.
• But 4 turnovers from 5 plays by Georgia and Ole Miss? When did that last happen?
• Boise State's loss means the end of their BCS hopes. Although they were probably too high in the rankings anyway.
• Oregon State are quietly putting together a good season. Could they be Oregon's toughest challenge in the regular season?
• Are Louisville and Ohio State unfairly being ignored despite being unbeaten?

A look ahead to week 10

Week 10 is dominated by Alabama at LSU. Not much need to be said about this game. So far Alabama has looked impressive while LSU has almost stumbled through the season. Despite this it will almost certainly decide the SEC West division. Personally I hope the game isn't as one-sided as last seasons national championship game, and features a few touchdowns unlike their regular season encounter last year. However, I'll settle for a game as tense and as enthralling as that regular season game.

Some other games I'll be keeping an eye on:

• Ole Miss at Georgia and Missouri at Florida - although last weeks cocktail party probably decided the SEC East, it isn't over yet. If Florida win the rest of their games they will either end up winning the division if Georgia slip up, or in a BCS bowl game if they don't. So this is an important week for both teams.
• Oregon at USC - by far the biggest test Oregon will have faced so far this season and the start of their tough end of season run of games. We'll find out if they are as good as they have looked very soon.
• Oklahoma State at Kansas State - this time last year Oklahoma State were on course for an unbeaten season and making the national championship game. Then they unexpectedly lost at Iowa State. Kansas State are on course for an unbeaten season, can they avoid the unexpected loss?