The season so far - where are we?

One thing stood out for me in the latest BCS standings this week. There are 5 SEC teams in the top 8! This is largely because, with the exception of Alabama who appear to be in a class of their own, there have been 4 very good teams in the SEC with little to choose between them. And we know this because they have played each other over the last few weeks, each winning and losing. To recap

• Florida has beaten LSU and South Carolina but lost to Georgia
• LSU has lost to Florida but beat South Carolina
• South Carolina beat Georgia but lost to Florida and LSU
• Georgia beat Florida but lost to South Carolina

So there is no clarity as to who is the best team amongst those 4 and so they occupy spots 5-8 in the BCS rankings.

Next weekend Alabama plays LSU. If Alabama wins, then they have a clear run. But if they lose you can throw them in with the other 4 teams and there is a real possibility of 4 SEC teams having 1-loss at the end of the regular season.

It's been assumed that a 1-loss SEC champion will make it to the national championship game. But the above confusion could lead to a split SEC vote. This, combined with events elsewhere could see them miss out.

The events elsewhere are the remaining undefeated teams. I think its unlikely Louisville will climb high enough in the rankings even if they remain unbeaten due to the perceived weakness of the Big East, so I'll put them to one-side for now. The other undefeated teams are Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State.

Of these, Oregon has had the easiest schedule so far. However their schedule is backloaded with USC, Stanford and Oregon State still to come. Should they get through that and the Pac-12 championship game undefeated they will have a very strong case.

But then so would an undefeated Big 12 champion. And Notre Dame who have a tough schedule this year. If all 3 of these teams win out, it's tricky to see who will top them. It could come down to something as simple as Oregon having to play an extra game due to the Pac 12 having a championship game. Is this fair? I'm not sure.

And in the scenario that LSU beats Alabama and we have a 1-loss SEC champion, and all of Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State go undefeated, which of those would be in the top 2? Unfortunately the play-off is still a couple of years away as this is exactly the scenario it would be perfect for.

Elsewhere this season, there is no sign of a decent non-AQ challenger after the recent success of Boise State and TCU (although Boise State may creep up there I believe they are overrated as they haven't really beaten anyone this year). The ACC struggles for legitimacy. Last year they went 0-2 in BCS bowls with Clemson destroyed by West Virginia. They also don't have any high profile non-conference wins this year (Clemson's win over Auburn at the start looked promising, but then Auburn have been awful this year). As a conference they need some high profile wins to move up the rankings.

Another disappointing conference has been the Big 10. I'm not sure hat it says about them when their best team is under various NCAA sanctions including a post-season ban.

So how will the season end? Despite what was said earlier, the most likely outcome is that Alabama will win out and then there will be an argument over the number 2 ranking. Either way there is sure to be an argument over the whole BCS system which is a bit pointless as its being scrapped anyway.

Some thoughts on week 9

• There were a stupid number of turnovers and penalties in the Florida - Georgia game. If either team had a decent offensive performance which cut them out they'd have won comfortably. That said, a big win for Georgia which means they now control their own destiny.
• However, one play highlighted a concern I have over player safety. In the 4th quarter, Florida went for it on 4th down and ran a jet sweep. Florida didn't make it and their player stayed down obviously hurt in the tackle. What I noticed was no-one thought there was much wrong with the tackle. The commentators said it was okay as it wasn't a horse-collar tackle. But to me it was very dangerous because the player was tackled around his head. In rugby this would be considered a serious foul and the player would have spent 10 minutes in the sin bin at least (for anyone who doesn't know, that's a temporary ejection from the game with his team not allowed to replace him so they are a player down for 10 minutes). Any tackle above the shoulders is considered dangerous in rugby, so why the difference here?
• Notre Dame were very impressive especially on defence against the run, and in the 4th quarter. They probably should be ranked 1 or 2 now based on what they've achieved so far this season.
• Should Manti Te'o be leading the Heisman race?
• Kansa State roll on, getting the job done. Is Collin Klein having a Heisman year?
• Alabama's win over Mississipii State highlighted that sometimes the rankings are right. Even though both were 7-0, Alabama are a much better team.
• A big win for Washington over Oregon State. The loss for Oregon State mixes things up in the Pac 12.
• USC's loss is bad for them and Oregon. Strength of schedule is hurting Oregon and they could do with their remaining opponents being as strong as possible (and obviously beating them) if they are to be in the top two at the end of the season.
• Marquis Lee had 345 yards receiving and USC still lost!
• Is it really only two years since Auburn won the national title? They've been awful this year.
• My top 5 as of now - Notre Dame, Kansas State, Alabama, Oregon, LSU.
• Get well soon Marcus Lattimore.

A look ahead to week 9

We're now well into the second half of the season and its becoming clear who the leading teams are. Who the best teams are should become clear over the next few weeks, starting with this weeks standout games:

• Florida - Georgia - The worlds largest outdoor cocktail party should decide the SEC East, unless there's a shock result in the next couple of weeks. Based on Georgia's last couple of games, Florida should win this. But Georgia are capable of much better than the last couple of weeks so they could spring a surprise.
• Notre Dame at Oklahoma - Although it won't affect the Big 12 title race, this is a must win for Oklahoma if they want to go to one of the BCS bowls. At 2 losses they'd be out of contention for that. For Notre Dame, a win keeps them in the national title race. The Irish have been winning plenty of close games but not dominating. I'd pick Notre Dame to win this, if they can keep it a close game.

A few other highlights this week:

• Mississippi State at Alabama - Mississippi State haven't got much attention despite being unbeaten. Alabama should win this and, given this is one of their few tests this season, a comfortable win would cement their place at the top of the rankings.
• Ohio State at Penn State - given that these two are not eligible for the post-season, this could be the unofficial Big 10 championship game.
• Texas Tech at Kansas State - potentially a tricky game for Kansas State. This season is due a major upset and Texas Tech have the firepower to do it, but will Kansas State let them?

Some thoughts on week 8

• Defence is beginning to take over in the national title race. All the current top 5 have good defences.
• The Kansas State win at West Virginia illustrates this perfectly. West Virginia have been exposed by their lack of a defence for the second week running. Kansas State are much more balanced and have one of the best quarterbacks in college football.
• Florida were impressive in their win over South Carolina except on offence. Their defence and special teams won the game for them, with punter Kyle Christy having the sort of day Brad Wing did for LSU most weeks last season.
• Notre Dame won another close one. They are in contention but they are not dominating games which is possibly hurting them in the rankings.
• Alabama had another comfortable win but are yet to be tested.
• Oregon were favoured to win but had the game at Arizona State won by half time. First tricky test and they looked impressive.
• Based on the season so far my current top 5 would be Florida, Kansas State, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame in that order.
• There are still a lot of 1-loss teams that are in contention because of the games still to be played. For example - LSU play Alabama, USC play Oregon and Notre Dame, Oklahoma play Notre Dame, Georgia plays Florida and Florida State plays Florida. While we'll probably have at least 2 unbeaten teams at the end of the season, I think it could be anywhere from 0 to 5.
• Congratulations to Duke on going bowling again.
• And the dangers of being a celebrity guest on live TV....

Things I'm looking forward to in week 8

• South Carolina at Florida is the big one this week. This should decide the SEC East (although Georgia aren't out of it yet)
• Kansas State at West Virginia - A week ago this looked a much bigger game, but then West Virginia's offence had an off day. Will they recover? A Kansas State win may mean the end
• Oregon at Arizona State - Oregon have cruised through the first half of the season, but have yet to be really tested (a fact reflected in the BCS rankings). Although bigger ones lie ahead, this is their first real test. It's time we started finding out how good Oregon really are this year.
• BYU at Notre Dame - a potential banana skin for Notre Dame. They should have enough to win but BYU are also capable of an upset if Notre Dame are not at their best.

The teams are starting to separate out and hopefully the influence of the early guesswork will start to fade in the rankings. Several other games such as LSU at Texas A&M, Michigan State at Michigan and Florida state at Miami will help this.

Some thoughts on week 7

• ESPN America's games this week were Texas-Oklahoma and Alabama-Missouri. Two one-sided games. Hopefully they can manage to pick better games over the next few weeks.
• How poor were the Longhorns? Their first half was possibly the worst half of college football I've seen. Oklahoma were okay, nothing more. But they didn't need to be given how poor Texas were.
• Alabama were again in a different class to their opposition. However, one thing struck me about their season so far, they haven't really played anyone yet. Their schedule looked like it would have a couple of tough early games against Michigan and Arkansas, but with hindsight these teams are nowhere near as good as expected. And looking ahead, only one game really jumps out - at LSU on 3rd November.
• LSU's win over South Carolina puts them back in the mix. It also shows that at the top of the SEC, with the exception of Alabama, their may be little to choose between the next 3 or 4 teams. It's plausible the SEC could end up with 4 1-loss teams if Florida beat South Carolina, LSU beat Alabama and Georgia beat Florida for example. This could lead to an interesting scenario where the highest ranked SEC team (Alabama for example) does not go to the SEC Championship game.
• Despite their loss, South Carolina still has its destiny in its own hands. Win at Florida and they are in the SEC Championship game. Win in Atlanta and they are likely going to Miami. A few assumptions there, but its almost that simple.
• Does Florida have the most impressive record this season? Given their schedule and what we know, possibly.
• A very big win for Notre Dame who are looking real contenders. However I'm not convinced about the call for that Stanford 'touchdown' at the end of OT. One thing I am clear about is that whatever the call was on the field it should have stood after review as there was no indisputable evidence either way.
• Notre Dame's got some big tests still to come (trips to Oklahoma and USC for example)but the main reason they are contenders is their defence.
• Speaking of which, West Virginia discovered the danger of having an awful defence. you are always vulnerable if your offence has an off day. A great defence will keep you in games, so you have a chance even when the offence has an off day.

(The above was written before the release of the first BCS standings)

Some thoughts on week 6, and a look forward to week 7

Week 6 of the season sorted a few things out as expected, with more to come in week 7. Some observations on this and the season so far:

• South Carolina's win over Georgia and Florida's win over LSU were both massive. Of the two, South Carolina's was the most impressive as LSU had been unconvincing for a couple of weeks. But it was still Florida's biggest win since at least the Tim Tebow era ended.
• The SEC East looks like it could be decided on 20th October when South Carolina go to the Swamp. But I still think both LSU and Georgia could play a role in this, starting this weekend when LSU host South Carolina.
• LSU aren't out of things yet. As well as the South Carolina game, they still have to face Alabama and a win in that game would put them right back in it.
• That's the end of the ACC challenge for the national title unless either the SEC champion or the Pac-12 champion loses 2 games.
• West Virgina have shown they can beat anyone in a shoot-out. How they will do against a truly elite defence is a question I hope we get an answer to at some point this season.
• The Texas - Oklahoma game this weekend is almost a knock-out game in the Big-12. I think the loser of this will be out of the race, with the winner still having an outside chance.
• Notre Dame's win over Miami means we must now take them seriously. How seriously depends on this weekends game against Stanford. This is, for me, the most interesting game of the weekend.
• The Big-10 is turning into a bit of a mess this year. It's possible the two best teams will be ineligible for the post-season. And what does that say about the strength of the rest of the conference if they aren't as good as two teams who should be weaker due to various NCAA sanctions?

Things I'm looking forward to in week 6

Week 6 looks like the best set of games so far this season. So inevitably I'm away for the weekend and am unlikely to see much. Oh well, some things I'll look out for....

• Georgia at South Carolina - This week should really start to sort out who the best teams are and this is a prime example. Whoever wins this may have a clear run to the SEC Championship Game. However.....
• LSU at Florida - a win for Florida would really put them back in the running for the SEC title. LSU haven't been at their best the last couple of weeks but will have to be at their best for this game if they want to stay in the race for the national title. These two games will go a long way to shaping the rest of the season in the SEC.
• West Virginia at Texas - After West Virginia racked up 70 points last week, how will they do this week. Texas should prove a tougher test.
• Miami at Notre Dame - Two sides looking better than expected this year. Are they really going to contend? This should tell us a lot about both teams.
• Washington at Oregan - which Washington will turn up? The team destroyed by LSU, or the team that beat Stanford? A comfortable win for Oregan would confirm them in the top 4.

A few thoughts on week 5

• Did West Virginia and Baylor decide to take the maxim 'Attack is the best form of Defence' to its logical extreme - All attack means no need for defence? Far too many ridiculous stats from this game with a scoreline more like a Basketball game.
• This game again illustrated the absurdities in the rankings. Number 25 loses by a single score on the road at number 9. That sounds like the teams should, if anything, be a few places closer in the rankings. So what happened to Baylor? They dropped out of the rankings.
• Ohio State would be much better with a good running back. At the moment the offence seems to be either a Braxton Millar pass, or a Braxton Millar run. As talented as he is, another option would help them enormously.
• And their defence needs to learn how to tackle.
• Iowa running back Mark Weisman had a good game. But one thing that was noticeable for me was how often he had big gaps to run into. I haven't seen that mentioned much since the game so a deserved mention for Iowa's offensive line for a good game.
• What's happened to Virginia Tech this year? Very disappointing so far.
• And LSU struggled for the second week running. Could they get found out at Florida?
• How on earth did the Louisville - Southern Miss game go ahead given the field was a lake?