2012 Beef O'Brady Bowl - some brief thoughts

According to the Guardian, this bowl has the worst college bowl name. The game itself wasn't a classic either. Central Florida was just much better than Ball State and the game was probably over at the end of the 1st quarter. What killed it off was the final 2 minutes of the 1st half. At 21-7 to UCF, Ball State threatened to score but ended up missing a field goal. UCF then went down the field and scored another touchdown. What should have been 21-10 and could have been 21-14 at half-time, became 28-7. Game over. Second half was a non-event as Ball State never threatened any sort of comeback.

2012 Poinsettia Bowl - some observations on a poor game

The first bowl game I've managed to watch was the Poinsettia Bowl and I'm not sure I should have bothered. Frankly it was a very poor game. Here's a few observations on it:

• San Diego State should have been at least 10 points up at half-time instead of just 3. In the first half BYU's offence was awful (it wasn't much better in the 2nd half) but San Diego State's wasn't much better.
• In the 2nd half BYU benefited from much better field position, mainly because their defence took over. That was the difference between the two teams - BYU's defence in the second half won the game.
• BYU's punter also made a significant contribution with several punts pinning the Aztecs inside their own 10 yard line in the 2nd half.  This gave BYU a huge advantage with field position in the 2nd half.
• Kyle Van Noy looks a hell of a player. He always seemed to be at the centre of any significant plays BYU's defence made.
• One thing I kept noticing during the game was that ESPN didn't show many shots of the crowd. Any crowd shots always seemed to be close ups of small groups and the aerial shots were always from a distance. Was this deliberate? The crowd was around 35,000 (1) in a stadium which holds twice that so maybe the bowl didn't want shots of a half empty stadium shown on TV.

Some thoughts on the bowl games

Now we have the full bowl game line-up I'm left with a feeling of almost disappointment. Apart from 4 or 5 games, I'm struggling to find ones I'll definitely want to watch. Last year we had match-ups like Florida-Ohio State, Florida State-Notre Dame, Georgia-Michigan State as some of the highlights outside the BCS bowls, along with many other intriguing bowls. This year, well I'm not sure how many I'll make a point of watching.

The biggest story of the bowl line-up announcement was Northern Illinois making it. I'm in 2 minds about this. Part of me thinks every team should have a chance to reach the biggest games at the start of the season and its good to have rules that allow for this. But then the point of the bowls for me is to create a series of match-ups between teams from different conferences who, on the basis of what they achieved in the season, should be evenly matched. The effect of Northern Illinois making it (and the knock-on effects) has been to make 2 of the BCS bowls look like they are going to be very one-sided games (a third may also be one-sided but that's due to the sanctions against Ohio State, which is another story). This is unfortunate but it is not Northern Illinois fault, they have qualified fairly under the rules.

Having said that, here are some thoughts on the bowls I'll be trying to watch, starting with the one I'll make the most effort to watch (and the last 3 are only their because they are the BCS bowls):

• Alabama vs Notre Dame - The National Championship game. Enough said.
• Kansas State vs Oregon - This is the sort of game we should be seeing, 4 vs 5. But also a game we won't see in a couple of years due to the 4 team play-off.
• Oklahoma vs Texas A&M - This is by far the most interesting non-BCS bowl game. Texas A&M finished the season playing as well as anyone. Can they carry on?
• UCLA vs Baylor - will the Holiday Bowl be this years pointsplosion like the Alamo Bowl last year?
• LSU vs Clemson - a good SEC-ACC match up.
• Oregon State vs Texas - This (and the Fiesta Bowl) will be an excellent guide to the relative strengths of the Pac-12 and Big-12. On paper these 2 have had similar seasons in conferences of similar strength. So this should be close.
• Northern Illinois vs Florida State - I may only last the 1st quarter with this unless it close. It's either going to be the biggest car crash of the bowl games with Florida State dominating, or possibly the biggest upset of the bowls if Northern Illinois can keep it close.
• Florida vs Louisville - Should be an easy win for Florida but then they didn't have many easy wins during the regular season even when heavily favoured.
• Stanford vs Wisconsin - If the Wisconsin offence that put 70 on Nebraska turns up we could have a good game. Otherwise this may be an easy win for Stanford.

Some thoughts on week 14 - Championship weekend

• The SEC Championship was a hell of a game. Brutal, dramatic and played at a much higher level than almost everything else I've watched this season. It was proper grown-up football.
• If only Chris Conley had thought quicker and dropped the pass on the final play, Georgia would have had time for another play. Though there's no blame against him as its almost impossible to make the decision that quick, it's a big what-if to end the game on.
• The closeness of this game is more evidence of how close the top 6 teams in the SEC are. They've all beaten and lost to each other so it's not clear even now which is the best team in the SEC. How would Florida have done against Alabama for example?
• Another good win for Kansas State and Colin Klein. He's probably sealed a top 3 finish in the Heisman race now.
• When will Nebraska's defence turn up in Indianapolis? Where on earth did that demolition by Wisconsin's offence come from? And where has that offence been all year?
• Why was the stadium in Charlotte half-empty for the ACC Championship game?
• Will anyone from a non-AQ conference sneak into the top 16 and grab a BCS bowl spot?
• Just Army-Navy and the bowl games to go. Why is the season so short?

Looking ahead to week 14 - Championship Week

With just next weeks big game between Jackson State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff to come, oh and the Army-Navy game, this week is the end of the regular season. A week dominated by conference championship games though there are many other issues to decide. Here are some of the games I'm looking forward to, although this has been one of the easier weeks to pick them:

• Alabama vs Georgia - the biggest game of the week. Effectively we have a 3-team playoff this year with these two facing each other in a semi-final for the right to play the top seed. And there's the small matter of the SEC Championship on the line.
• Texas at Kansas State - Kansas State are unlucky in that they have fallen off many people's radar at the wrong time. They lost then had a week off right at the end of the season. Can they finish the season 12-1 and win the Big 12?
• Kent State vs Northern Illinois - Could Kent State really break into the BCS bowls? A MAC team?
• Louisville at Rutgers - a Big East decider between 2 teams who soon won't be in the Big East.
• UCLA at Stanford - there's a good argument that Stanford are finishing the season as well as anyone. Can they win the Pac-12?
• Nebraska vs Wisconsin - Officially a Big 10 championship game. In reality it will decide the second best team in the Big 10.
• Florida State vs Georgia Tech - The ACC has had a bad couple of weeks but the addition of Louisville is a good step in the right direction. A good championship game would be another. What they really need though are some notable bowl wins.

Some thoughts on week 13, the end of the season for some

Firstly I want to get off my chest an issue I have with ESPN America's choice of game this week. Of the 3 games they showed, I agree with their first and third choices (Michigan at Ohio State and Notre Dame at USC) but the second game I cannot understand their choice. The Iron Bowl was on despite it looking in advance like a one-sided game, and the Civil War, Bedlam and Florida at Florida State all being played at the same time. Any one of those 3 would have been a better choice.

Now, onto my thoughts on the games themselves...

• Congratulations to Ohio State on their unbeaten season. There are a few caveats but remaining unbeaten is still an impressive achievement.
• Congratulations also to Notre Dame on their unbeaten (so far) season. They are essentially a very good all round team. There are no areas of weakness on the team and they know how to win games.
• When was the last time the pre-season number 1 ended the season unranked? Or the end of season number 1 starting unranked? I've started going back through the rankings (got to 1995 so far) but can't find an example of either. This year we could have both.
• USC's back-up Quarterback Max Wittek looked promising in his first start. He's certainly got a strong arm, just a pity Marqise Lee didn't spot his long passes a couple of times.
• Should Florida be in the top 2? There is a good argument that they are the best SEC team this season. There are 3 1-loss teams in the SEC and they are the unfortunate team to miss out on the SEC Championship game. Yet they've got the best body of work of any team, as reflected by their top ranking in the computers. On Saturday they went to (probably) the best team in the ACC and basically bullied them up front. So will the best team in the SEC miss out?
• The ACC has had a horrible week. As well as losing Maryland, they had 4 games against the SEC and lost them all. They are not going to be high up the rankings until they get some high profile wins in non-conference or bowl games.
• Johnny Manziel - just give him the Heisman now.
• The Iron Bowl was horrible to watch, so why did ESPN America inflict it on us?. Far, far too easy for Alabama. How have Auburn become so bad so quickly?
• Bedlam, 500 yards from 71 attempts by Landry Jones. Nuts.

Looking ahead to week 13, a final chance for some

After the upheaval of the last 2 weeks at the top, things should be clarified a bit more this week. I say should because if Notre Dame lose then all sorts of arguments begin. A few thoughts on what I'll be looking out for this week.

• Notre Dame at USC - simply a win for the Irish and their in the BCS title game. But, USC isn't a walkover. They are very capable of winning this game, even though they've shown no signs of winning the big games this year. That said, I fully expect Notre Dame to win especially as Matt Barkley is out.
• Florida at Florida State - this is the most interesting game of the weekend, so why are ESPN America showing the Iron Bowl instead? If Florida win, then they will probably finish the season ranked number 1 by the computers and could be a Notre Dame loss away from the BCS title game. A Florida State win would put them back in the conversation and also give a much needed boost to the ACC.
• Michigan at Ohio State - can Ohio State remain undefeated? If so, and other results go their way, could they end up ranked 1 in the AP poll and we have a split national title?
• Oregon at Oregon State - will Oregon bounce back from their loss to Stanford? They need some help (mainly from Pac-12 south teams) but aren't out of it yet.
• Stanford at UCLA - This game is big for 2 teams, Stanford and Oregon. UCLA are already in the Pac-12 championship game, so who do they want to play next week?
• South Carolina at Clemson - This could tell us a lot about the respective strengths of the ACC and SEC. Two teams of similar records and rankings but if the computers are right and the ACC is weak, this will be a win for South Carolina. If Clemson win, some reassessment may be needed which could help Florida State if they beat Florida and other results go their way.
• Auburn at Alabama - the only way Auburn can rescue anything from this season is by wrecking Alabama's. An unlikely win for Auburn could prevent Alabama from reaching both the SEC championship game and the BCS title game. But that's not why I'll be watching. I'll be watching because ESPN America think this is a better game than Florida at Florida State.
• There are also some other games I'll be looking for the result of such as Georgia Tech at Georgia, Missouri at Texas A&M and Oklahoma State at Oklahoma.

The most likely result of the weekend is that we will have a Notre Dame - SEC Champion title game in January. But a loss to Notre Dame changes all that. A Florida win and an all-SEC title game is then likely. But another twist is also possible. If either Alabama or Georgia lose this week, we could end up with a 2-loss SEC champion. Would a 1-loss Florida then get in, or another 1-loss team? After the last couple of weeks I'm expecting at least one of the top teams to lose, but I've no idea which one.

Some thoughts on week 12

Week 12 last year saw #2 Oklahoma State lose in double overtime at Iowa State, knocking them out of the national title game. This year it saw the top 2 teams lose, probably knocking both of them out of the title race. It was also a week in which the biggest winners, the SEC, essentially had a week off. Some thoughts on this and more.

• Stanford's defensive front 7 were immense. They slowed down Oregon's offence by containing their running game. This is the same thing that defeated Oregon when they met the SEC over the last couple of years. Auburn and LSU's defensive lines slowed them down. This is a tactic that's clearly effective against Oregon if you are capable of doing it. Few teams are but Stanford were this week.
• Have they found a new Andrew Luck in Kevin Hogan?
• Oregon had a clear run to the national title game, but could now miss out on both the Pac-12 championship game and any BCS bowl.
• Huge win for Baylor. We knew they had a good offence but this was still a massive shock.
• One possibility as a result of this - Florida could be a couple of results from playing for the national title.
• The rankings are now a bit of a mess. Who is the best 1-loss team? The voters say Alabama, the computers say Florida, there's a strong case for Oregon, and where are Florida State in all this? A win for them against Florida and in the ACC championship game and they have a strong case too.
• At the minute it looks like it will be Notre Dame vs the SEC Champion. But if Notre Dame loses, we'll have an almighty row over who should be in. And I'm not sure a 4 team play-off would solve things given the log-jam in the rankings behind Notre Dame at the moment. More teams in the play-off would be needed.
• Where would Ohio State be in all this if they were eligible?
• What's happened to USC and Matt Barkley this year? Towards the end of last season they looked very impressive. The end of the post season ban should have helped with recruiting but they seem to have gone backwards this year. It will be interesting to see where Barkley ends up in the NFL draft as he'd have likely been a first round pick had he gone early.
• Hopefully the SEC enjoyed their week off.
• More realignment. Stop it please, unless its for genuine sporting reasons and not just for money.

Looking ahead to week 12

Only a couple of games of the regular season left for most teams. After last weeks upset loss for Alabama (although I had thought it was possible) I'm struggling to see any problems this week for at least two of the three unbeaten teams at the top, with Oregon facing a tricky road game that could further upset things. Some thoughts on this:

• Notre Dame should have no problem with Wake Forest at home, and Kansas State should also win at Baylor. A loss for either of them this week would be the biggest upset of the season so far.
• Oregon face a much stiffer test. Stanford have a defence which could stop Oregon's running game. That, and the injuries Oregon have in defence, makes this a potential upset. Oregon should win, but then Alabama should have won last week.Oregon have had the easiest schedule of the top 3 so far, but face the hardest end to the season. Can they remain unbeaten?
• It's sometimes easy to forget that Ohio State are also still unbeaten. Their post-season ban, and the weakness of the Big 10 mean they aren't getting the attention they deserve. Urban Meyer has done an outstanding job to get them to this point. This week they face a good test on the road at Wisconsin.
• USC at UCLA promises to be high scoring, and will probably decide who wins the Pac-12 South.
• How will Alabama bounce back from last weeks loss? They don't5 exactly face the toughest opposition (West Carolina) but then neither do most of the SEC, many of whom seem to be trying to have a collective week off this week.

Some thoughts on week 11

Alabama's loss shakes things up a bit. Some thoughts on this and the rest of week 11:

• Is this the end of the SEC challenge for the title? Probably unless 2 of Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame lose a game. By adding Texas A&M, the SEC may lose the national title.
• Is the SEC paying a price for having too many good teams? There are 6 teams with 1 or 2 losses who have all beaten and lost to each other. Has this made the schedule too tough for anyone to remain undefeated?
• How good was Johnny Manziel? First time I've seen a full game and I was very impressed. His ability to extend the play and throw on the run both ways accuratley is brilliant.
• Another good solid win for both Kansas State and Notre Dame although neither really did anything more than that.
• Oregon were again impressive, though the next 2 games will test them more.
• Good win for Stanford. How their defence copes with Oregons offence next week should be interesting.
• As expected, Georgia wrapped up the SEC East title, and Auburn showed just how far they have fallen in the last 2 years.
• Florida got out of jail. They really shouldn't have needed to block a last minute punt to win that game. 
• Louisville and Alabama's loss means there are 4 undefeated teams remaining. It will be interesting to see where Ohio State are in the AP poll.
• And there was yet another basketball score game (Georgia Tech 68 North Carolina 50). There's been a few of those this season.
• My Current top 5 - Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia.   

A look ahead to week 11

We're now at the business end of the season. A single loss to any of several teams could make a big difference. Some thoughts on this weekends more notable games:

• Texas A&M at Alabama - after last weeks epic escape at LSU it would be very easy for Alabama to think this is an easier week. It might look it but Texas A&M are capable of an upset win. If they managed did it, they and Alabama would join a bunch of SEC teams at 1 or 2 losses who have beaten and lost to each other. That would probably be the end of any SEC challenge for the national title and create a mess at the top end of the rankings as voters try to separate out the group. The most likely outcome though, is an Alabama win and their march to Miami continuing.
• Kansas State at TCU - TCU are never an easy opponent so this is a tricky game for Kansas State. They should have enough as TCU are having a down year, but this may be the most likely upset this week amongst the 4 unbeateans at the top, especially as their is a doubt over Colin Kleins fitness.
• Notre Dame at Boston College - The Irish should have enough but then we thought the same of Oklahoma State at Iowa State at around the same time last year.
• Louisville at Syracuse - An AQ conference team unbeaten at this stage? Surely they will be in the national title conversation? But Louisville aren't even close. Mainly because of the perceived weakness of the Big East, but also because they haven't really had a tough schedule. Their opponents are a combined 28-56 so far. Can they keep this up till the end of the season and become the most underwhelming unbeaten team ever?
• Oregon at California - Tricky but probably Oregon's easiest game remaining.
• Oregon State at Stanford - Oregon's remaining opponents face each other. This should give us a good idea of who will be Oregon's toughest test.

Some thoughts on week 10

Despite a near miss for 2 of the unbeaten teams at the top of the rankings, and tough games for the other 2, we still have 4 teams clear and unbeaten at the top. Some thoughts on these, and other games this weekend:

• Alabama at LSU was every bit as good a game as expected, despite Alabama's offence going missing for 28 of the 30 minutes of the second half.
• LSU were the better team in this game but it is the sign of a very good team that they find a way to win even when they don't play well.
• Notre Dame got out of jail. They are becoming very good at winning close games. Also, good sides are lucky more often. Despite that, the impact of this game could well be Notre Dame missing out if there are more than 2 undefeated teams at the end of the season.
• Oregon had a very impressive win, demonstrating again just how dangerous their offence is. But for me this game raised a question mark against their defence. Is a defence that concedes 51 points a championship winning defence?
• A match-up I'd like to see is Oregon's offence against Alabama's defence.
• Kansas State are almost making it look routine. But the Colin Klein injury could be a worry.
• Will Muschamp has said Florida don't have much room for error. Well they certainly rode their luck this week. If James Franklin hadn't consistently overthrown the ball, Missouri would have won. But Florida remain on course for a final game with Florida State which should decide if they are in a BCS bowl, and they stay in position to take advantage of any slip up by Georgia.
• No sign of any slip by Georgia this week despite their slow start. Just Auburn to beat and they go to Atlanta.
• But 4 turnovers from 5 plays by Georgia and Ole Miss? When did that last happen?
• Boise State's loss means the end of their BCS hopes. Although they were probably too high in the rankings anyway.
• Oregon State are quietly putting together a good season. Could they be Oregon's toughest challenge in the regular season?
• Are Louisville and Ohio State unfairly being ignored despite being unbeaten?

A look ahead to week 10

Week 10 is dominated by Alabama at LSU. Not much need to be said about this game. So far Alabama has looked impressive while LSU has almost stumbled through the season. Despite this it will almost certainly decide the SEC West division. Personally I hope the game isn't as one-sided as last seasons national championship game, and features a few touchdowns unlike their regular season encounter last year. However, I'll settle for a game as tense and as enthralling as that regular season game.

Some other games I'll be keeping an eye on:

• Ole Miss at Georgia and Missouri at Florida - although last weeks cocktail party probably decided the SEC East, it isn't over yet. If Florida win the rest of their games they will either end up winning the division if Georgia slip up, or in a BCS bowl game if they don't. So this is an important week for both teams.
• Oregon at USC - by far the biggest test Oregon will have faced so far this season and the start of their tough end of season run of games. We'll find out if they are as good as they have looked very soon.
• Oklahoma State at Kansas State - this time last year Oklahoma State were on course for an unbeaten season and making the national championship game. Then they unexpectedly lost at Iowa State. Kansas State are on course for an unbeaten season, can they avoid the unexpected loss?

The season so far - where are we?

One thing stood out for me in the latest BCS standings this week. There are 5 SEC teams in the top 8! This is largely because, with the exception of Alabama who appear to be in a class of their own, there have been 4 very good teams in the SEC with little to choose between them. And we know this because they have played each other over the last few weeks, each winning and losing. To recap

• Florida has beaten LSU and South Carolina but lost to Georgia
• LSU has lost to Florida but beat South Carolina
• South Carolina beat Georgia but lost to Florida and LSU
• Georgia beat Florida but lost to South Carolina

So there is no clarity as to who is the best team amongst those 4 and so they occupy spots 5-8 in the BCS rankings.

Next weekend Alabama plays LSU. If Alabama wins, then they have a clear run. But if they lose you can throw them in with the other 4 teams and there is a real possibility of 4 SEC teams having 1-loss at the end of the regular season.

It's been assumed that a 1-loss SEC champion will make it to the national championship game. But the above confusion could lead to a split SEC vote. This, combined with events elsewhere could see them miss out.

The events elsewhere are the remaining undefeated teams. I think its unlikely Louisville will climb high enough in the rankings even if they remain unbeaten due to the perceived weakness of the Big East, so I'll put them to one-side for now. The other undefeated teams are Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State.

Of these, Oregon has had the easiest schedule so far. However their schedule is backloaded with USC, Stanford and Oregon State still to come. Should they get through that and the Pac-12 championship game undefeated they will have a very strong case.

But then so would an undefeated Big 12 champion. And Notre Dame who have a tough schedule this year. If all 3 of these teams win out, it's tricky to see who will top them. It could come down to something as simple as Oregon having to play an extra game due to the Pac 12 having a championship game. Is this fair? I'm not sure.

And in the scenario that LSU beats Alabama and we have a 1-loss SEC champion, and all of Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State go undefeated, which of those would be in the top 2? Unfortunately the play-off is still a couple of years away as this is exactly the scenario it would be perfect for.

Elsewhere this season, there is no sign of a decent non-AQ challenger after the recent success of Boise State and TCU (although Boise State may creep up there I believe they are overrated as they haven't really beaten anyone this year). The ACC struggles for legitimacy. Last year they went 0-2 in BCS bowls with Clemson destroyed by West Virginia. They also don't have any high profile non-conference wins this year (Clemson's win over Auburn at the start looked promising, but then Auburn have been awful this year). As a conference they need some high profile wins to move up the rankings.

Another disappointing conference has been the Big 10. I'm not sure hat it says about them when their best team is under various NCAA sanctions including a post-season ban.

So how will the season end? Despite what was said earlier, the most likely outcome is that Alabama will win out and then there will be an argument over the number 2 ranking. Either way there is sure to be an argument over the whole BCS system which is a bit pointless as its being scrapped anyway.

Some thoughts on week 9

• There were a stupid number of turnovers and penalties in the Florida - Georgia game. If either team had a decent offensive performance which cut them out they'd have won comfortably. That said, a big win for Georgia which means they now control their own destiny.
• However, one play highlighted a concern I have over player safety. In the 4th quarter, Florida went for it on 4th down and ran a jet sweep. Florida didn't make it and their player stayed down obviously hurt in the tackle. What I noticed was no-one thought there was much wrong with the tackle. The commentators said it was okay as it wasn't a horse-collar tackle. But to me it was very dangerous because the player was tackled around his head. In rugby this would be considered a serious foul and the player would have spent 10 minutes in the sin bin at least (for anyone who doesn't know, that's a temporary ejection from the game with his team not allowed to replace him so they are a player down for 10 minutes). Any tackle above the shoulders is considered dangerous in rugby, so why the difference here?
• Notre Dame were very impressive especially on defence against the run, and in the 4th quarter. They probably should be ranked 1 or 2 now based on what they've achieved so far this season.
• Should Manti Te'o be leading the Heisman race?
• Kansa State roll on, getting the job done. Is Collin Klein having a Heisman year?
• Alabama's win over Mississipii State highlighted that sometimes the rankings are right. Even though both were 7-0, Alabama are a much better team.
• A big win for Washington over Oregon State. The loss for Oregon State mixes things up in the Pac 12.
• USC's loss is bad for them and Oregon. Strength of schedule is hurting Oregon and they could do with their remaining opponents being as strong as possible (and obviously beating them) if they are to be in the top two at the end of the season.
• Marquis Lee had 345 yards receiving and USC still lost!
• Is it really only two years since Auburn won the national title? They've been awful this year.
• My top 5 as of now - Notre Dame, Kansas State, Alabama, Oregon, LSU.
• Get well soon Marcus Lattimore.

A look ahead to week 9

We're now well into the second half of the season and its becoming clear who the leading teams are. Who the best teams are should become clear over the next few weeks, starting with this weeks standout games:

• Florida - Georgia - The worlds largest outdoor cocktail party should decide the SEC East, unless there's a shock result in the next couple of weeks. Based on Georgia's last couple of games, Florida should win this. But Georgia are capable of much better than the last couple of weeks so they could spring a surprise.
• Notre Dame at Oklahoma - Although it won't affect the Big 12 title race, this is a must win for Oklahoma if they want to go to one of the BCS bowls. At 2 losses they'd be out of contention for that. For Notre Dame, a win keeps them in the national title race. The Irish have been winning plenty of close games but not dominating. I'd pick Notre Dame to win this, if they can keep it a close game.

A few other highlights this week:

• Mississippi State at Alabama - Mississippi State haven't got much attention despite being unbeaten. Alabama should win this and, given this is one of their few tests this season, a comfortable win would cement their place at the top of the rankings.
• Ohio State at Penn State - given that these two are not eligible for the post-season, this could be the unofficial Big 10 championship game.
• Texas Tech at Kansas State - potentially a tricky game for Kansas State. This season is due a major upset and Texas Tech have the firepower to do it, but will Kansas State let them?

Some thoughts on week 8

• Defence is beginning to take over in the national title race. All the current top 5 have good defences.
• The Kansas State win at West Virginia illustrates this perfectly. West Virginia have been exposed by their lack of a defence for the second week running. Kansas State are much more balanced and have one of the best quarterbacks in college football.
• Florida were impressive in their win over South Carolina except on offence. Their defence and special teams won the game for them, with punter Kyle Christy having the sort of day Brad Wing did for LSU most weeks last season.
• Notre Dame won another close one. They are in contention but they are not dominating games which is possibly hurting them in the rankings.
• Alabama had another comfortable win but are yet to be tested.
• Oregon were favoured to win but had the game at Arizona State won by half time. First tricky test and they looked impressive.
• Based on the season so far my current top 5 would be Florida, Kansas State, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame in that order.
• There are still a lot of 1-loss teams that are in contention because of the games still to be played. For example - LSU play Alabama, USC play Oregon and Notre Dame, Oklahoma play Notre Dame, Georgia plays Florida and Florida State plays Florida. While we'll probably have at least 2 unbeaten teams at the end of the season, I think it could be anywhere from 0 to 5.
• Congratulations to Duke on going bowling again.
• And the dangers of being a celebrity guest on live TV....

Things I'm looking forward to in week 8

• South Carolina at Florida is the big one this week. This should decide the SEC East (although Georgia aren't out of it yet)
• Kansas State at West Virginia - A week ago this looked a much bigger game, but then West Virginia's offence had an off day. Will they recover? A Kansas State win may mean the end
• Oregon at Arizona State - Oregon have cruised through the first half of the season, but have yet to be really tested (a fact reflected in the BCS rankings). Although bigger ones lie ahead, this is their first real test. It's time we started finding out how good Oregon really are this year.
• BYU at Notre Dame - a potential banana skin for Notre Dame. They should have enough to win but BYU are also capable of an upset if Notre Dame are not at their best.

The teams are starting to separate out and hopefully the influence of the early guesswork will start to fade in the rankings. Several other games such as LSU at Texas A&M, Michigan State at Michigan and Florida state at Miami will help this.

Some thoughts on week 7

• ESPN America's games this week were Texas-Oklahoma and Alabama-Missouri. Two one-sided games. Hopefully they can manage to pick better games over the next few weeks.
• How poor were the Longhorns? Their first half was possibly the worst half of college football I've seen. Oklahoma were okay, nothing more. But they didn't need to be given how poor Texas were.
• Alabama were again in a different class to their opposition. However, one thing struck me about their season so far, they haven't really played anyone yet. Their schedule looked like it would have a couple of tough early games against Michigan and Arkansas, but with hindsight these teams are nowhere near as good as expected. And looking ahead, only one game really jumps out - at LSU on 3rd November.
• LSU's win over South Carolina puts them back in the mix. It also shows that at the top of the SEC, with the exception of Alabama, their may be little to choose between the next 3 or 4 teams. It's plausible the SEC could end up with 4 1-loss teams if Florida beat South Carolina, LSU beat Alabama and Georgia beat Florida for example. This could lead to an interesting scenario where the highest ranked SEC team (Alabama for example) does not go to the SEC Championship game.
• Despite their loss, South Carolina still has its destiny in its own hands. Win at Florida and they are in the SEC Championship game. Win in Atlanta and they are likely going to Miami. A few assumptions there, but its almost that simple.
• Does Florida have the most impressive record this season? Given their schedule and what we know, possibly.
• A very big win for Notre Dame who are looking real contenders. However I'm not convinced about the call for that Stanford 'touchdown' at the end of OT. One thing I am clear about is that whatever the call was on the field it should have stood after review as there was no indisputable evidence either way.
• Notre Dame's got some big tests still to come (trips to Oklahoma and USC for example)but the main reason they are contenders is their defence.
• Speaking of which, West Virginia discovered the danger of having an awful defence. you are always vulnerable if your offence has an off day. A great defence will keep you in games, so you have a chance even when the offence has an off day.

(The above was written before the release of the first BCS standings)

Some thoughts on week 6, and a look forward to week 7

Week 6 of the season sorted a few things out as expected, with more to come in week 7. Some observations on this and the season so far:

• South Carolina's win over Georgia and Florida's win over LSU were both massive. Of the two, South Carolina's was the most impressive as LSU had been unconvincing for a couple of weeks. But it was still Florida's biggest win since at least the Tim Tebow era ended.
• The SEC East looks like it could be decided on 20th October when South Carolina go to the Swamp. But I still think both LSU and Georgia could play a role in this, starting this weekend when LSU host South Carolina.
• LSU aren't out of things yet. As well as the South Carolina game, they still have to face Alabama and a win in that game would put them right back in it.
• That's the end of the ACC challenge for the national title unless either the SEC champion or the Pac-12 champion loses 2 games.
• West Virgina have shown they can beat anyone in a shoot-out. How they will do against a truly elite defence is a question I hope we get an answer to at some point this season.
• The Texas - Oklahoma game this weekend is almost a knock-out game in the Big-12. I think the loser of this will be out of the race, with the winner still having an outside chance.
• Notre Dame's win over Miami means we must now take them seriously. How seriously depends on this weekends game against Stanford. This is, for me, the most interesting game of the weekend.
• The Big-10 is turning into a bit of a mess this year. It's possible the two best teams will be ineligible for the post-season. And what does that say about the strength of the rest of the conference if they aren't as good as two teams who should be weaker due to various NCAA sanctions?

Things I'm looking forward to in week 6

Week 6 looks like the best set of games so far this season. So inevitably I'm away for the weekend and am unlikely to see much. Oh well, some things I'll look out for....

• Georgia at South Carolina - This week should really start to sort out who the best teams are and this is a prime example. Whoever wins this may have a clear run to the SEC Championship Game. However.....
• LSU at Florida - a win for Florida would really put them back in the running for the SEC title. LSU haven't been at their best the last couple of weeks but will have to be at their best for this game if they want to stay in the race for the national title. These two games will go a long way to shaping the rest of the season in the SEC.
• West Virginia at Texas - After West Virginia racked up 70 points last week, how will they do this week. Texas should prove a tougher test.
• Miami at Notre Dame - Two sides looking better than expected this year. Are they really going to contend? This should tell us a lot about both teams.
• Washington at Oregan - which Washington will turn up? The team destroyed by LSU, or the team that beat Stanford? A comfortable win for Oregan would confirm them in the top 4.

A few thoughts on week 5

• Did West Virginia and Baylor decide to take the maxim 'Attack is the best form of Defence' to its logical extreme - All attack means no need for defence? Far too many ridiculous stats from this game with a scoreline more like a Basketball game.
• This game again illustrated the absurdities in the rankings. Number 25 loses by a single score on the road at number 9. That sounds like the teams should, if anything, be a few places closer in the rankings. So what happened to Baylor? They dropped out of the rankings.
• Ohio State would be much better with a good running back. At the moment the offence seems to be either a Braxton Millar pass, or a Braxton Millar run. As talented as he is, another option would help them enormously.
• And their defence needs to learn how to tackle.
• Iowa running back Mark Weisman had a good game. But one thing that was noticeable for me was how often he had big gaps to run into. I haven't seen that mentioned much since the game so a deserved mention for Iowa's offensive line for a good game.
• What's happened to Virginia Tech this year? Very disappointing so far.
• And LSU struggled for the second week running. Could they get found out at Florida?
• How on earth did the Louisville - Southern Miss game go ahead given the field was a lake?

FBS vs FCS games

Good article in todays Guardian about the games between FBS and FCS schools and why they happen - here

Things I'm looking forward to in week 5

• Texas at Oklahoma State - Texas haven't really caught much attention so far. But they are a contender in a fairly open Big 12, so this could be a big win for them. Can they win a tough road game?
• Arkansas at Texas A&M - first SEC win for Texas A&M?
• Ohio State at Michigan State -on the face of it, an excellent match up between two well matched teams. But it could have some very odd consequences. Ohio State could end up winning their division, being the highest ranked Big Ten team and in neither the Big Ten championship game or a Bowl game due to NCAA sanctions. Hopefully this game is just a good game.
• Oregon State at Arizona - Oregon State could prove to be the wild card in the Pac-12 race. Can they follow up last weeks impressive win over UCLA?

Should Florida State be Gator fans for the rest of the season?

Florida State are currently ranked 4th and with a relatively easy schedule should be looking at making a run at the National Championship Game. But can they do that? The relatively easy schedule may be the biggest obstacle to achieving that. While Virginia Tech shouldn't be underestimated, as things stand they do not play a ranked side until their annual game with Florida.

A second factor that would hinder Florida state would be the perceived strength of the ACC. To put it bluntly, the SEC is seen as the strongest, followed by the Big 12 and Pac 12, then its probably the ACC and Big 10. This means that the title game is likely to be between the SEC champions and an undefeated or 1-loss Big 12 or Pac 12 champion.

So how could Florida State get to the National Championship Game? I think the following would need to happen as a minimum:

• Florida State must win the ACC, probably undefeated.
• There must be no more than 1 undefeated team from the SEC/Big 12/Pac 12.
• Florida must have a strong season but then lose to Florida State.

The above may not be enough but without all 3 I don't think they'll be in Miami on January 7th. The last one is important because it would give Florida State a high profile non-conference win over a ranked opponent, something currently missing from their season. If Florida arrived in Tallahassee with 6 or 7 wins, the win will be ignored. But if they arrive with 9 or 10 it will be impossible to ignore it. For this reason, Florida State should be Gator fans from now until 24th November, it could be the difference between Miami for the Orange Bowl, or the National Championship game

A few thoughts on week 4

• Clemson at Florida State certainly lived up to the hype. And the Seminoles were very impressive in the second half.
• Clemson have fallen 7 places in this weeks AP rankings to 17. That's a bit harsh for me as I think this game showed the rankings were about right for both teams.
• However, Florida States strength was supposed to be its defence. In its first real test it concedes 37 points. Is it good enough to challenge for the national title?
• Are Notre Dame for real this year, or was the Michigan game just more evidence for a poor year for the Big 10?
• Denard Robinson again struggled against a good defence. I'm starting to suspect he is what would be referred to in cricket as a flat track bully.
• LSU struggled to beat Auburn. Is this a sign that they are ranked too high? Or a sign that they are a good side who win even when they play badly?
• The SEC East could be very interesting this year with South Carolina, Georgia and Florida all making impressive starts to the season. We'll know a lot more about this on 6th October when Georgia are at South Carolina and Florida play LSU.

Things I'm looking forward to in week 4

• Clemson at Florida State - possibly the game of the season so far. I say possibly because this depends on if Florida State deserve their ranking of 4. Clemson have a decent opening day win over Auburn but so far Florida State haven't been tested, and so this will be the first big test.
• Michigan at Notre Dame- Are Notre Dame back? Are Michigan as bad as Alabama made them look or the top 10 side of pre-season expectations?
• Kansas State at Oklahoma - Oklahoma have beeen a bit quiet so far this season but this game will be the first chance to truly gauge where they are. Also a big chance for Kansas State to make a mark on the season.
• BYU at Boise State - This is Boise State's last chance to make a statement with a notable non-conference win. Lose this and their chances of a non-AQ BCS berth are gone.
• LSU at Auburn - LSU begin their SEC schedule with a tricky game on the road. They should win but this will tell us a lot about how close to Alabama they are.

Rankings - Still Just Guesswork?

In his latest power rankings column on SI.com, Andy Staples is most accurate when he says: "We're still just guessing.". There is still far too much uncertainty over how good everyone is, and even over the value of wins that teams already have.

Take the number 1 team, Alabama, for example. On the face of it they have impressive wins over Michigan and Arkansas. But how good were they? The Big 10 may be struggling this year (see here for example) so it remains to be seen how good Michigan actually are, and hence the value of Alabama's win. And as for the Arkansas win, well they are clearly not as good as was anticipated by many.

Another example of the guesswork is the low position of Stanford in 21st after week 2. This was based on their performance last year and the assumption that they couldn't be that good after losing several starters including Andrew Luck, arguably the best Quarterback prospect in years. Then they beat USC who were ranked 2nd. But was that ranking accurate? How good are USC?

I'm not going to claim that Alabama aren't the best team or that Stanford won;t end up ranked around 20th though. Just that as yet things aren't clear enough and there is far too much guesswork going on.

A few thoughts on week 3

• USC's loss to Stanford is the headline of the week. But only because USC were ranked number 2, a position based on the pre-season guesswork and not losing their first 2 games. In reality this was always going to be a tough road game so the loss shouldn't be that surprising.
• Alabama's demolition of Arkansas means they will stay at number 1 for the next few weeks. However, a couple of plays early on in the game highlight how important special teams can be. Firstly a bad snap on an Arkansas punt led to great field position and a very quick touchdown for Alabama. Then another bad snap led to a missed Arkansas field goal. Would Arkansas have won without this 10-point swing from 2 bad snaps? Very unlikely but it gave all the momentum to Alabama early on and they didn't let it go for the rest of the game.
• Louisiana-Monroe nearly did it again.
• Notre Dame's defence looked impressive against Michigan State. The defensive line in particular had a dominant day. But they are still unconvincing on Offence for me. A 3rd down conversion rate of 1 from 14 is poor and on another day they will get punished for that.
• Florida could be about to challenge in the SEC East. South Carolina and Georgia still look the teams to beat, but after 2 big conference wins on the road Florida shouldn't be discounted.
• The AP rankings are still settling down and so shouldn't be taken too seriously yet. The influence of the pre-season position is too great. A couple of examples of this: Have USC (13) had a better start to the season than Florida (14)? And Florida State haven't been tested yet and so are in 4th mainly due to their pre-season ranking of 7 and the performances of those who were above them.

Things I'm looking forward to in week 3

• Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn - this looks an easier game than at Arkansas if you believe the rankings, so can they repeat the upset win?
• Alabama at Arkansas - after last weeks shock loss will there be a reaction from Arkansas or will Alabama win comfortably? Which Arkansas team will show up, the team the pre-season polls expected them to be? Or the team that lost to Louisiana-Monroe?
• Florida at Tennessee - a key game for both teams as a loss could rule them out of the race for the SEC East already. A win would give them momentum as conference play in the SEC continues.
• USC at Stanford - an early test for USC in the PAC-12. Are they as good as everyone thinks? How much will Stanford miss Andrew Luck this year?
• Notre Dame at Michigan State - Based on the rankings, the game of the week. Two top 20 teams in action.

A few thoughts on week 2

• Louisiana-Monroe beating Arkansas! Who saw that coming? Have we had the years biggest upset already?
• Arkansas needs to block the pass rush better. If a Sun Belt team can get at the Quarterback that often, what will Alabama do next week?
• The flaws in the rankings having a starting point in the guesswork that is the pre-season rankings were exposed as Wisconsin, Nebraska and Oklahoma State all joined Arkansas as ranked teams losing to unranked teams.
• Huge win for Florida based on a massive second half performance from the defence.
• Quote of the weekend from Will Muschamp. When asked what he'd learnt about his Quarterback in the win - "Not one thing, I knew it going in."
• USC looked good. Mainly because I don't think they ever hit top form and still won comfortably.
• Penn State need a kicker.
• Get well soon Devon Walker.

Things I'm looking forward to in week 2

• Florida at Texas A&M and Georgia ai Missouri - SEC debuts for Texas A&M and Missouri and both games are very interesting. They will give a good early indication of were they are compared to the rest of the SEC. It's also a big game for Florida who were unconvincing in their win over Bowling Green.
• Air Force at Michigan - are Michigan a poor team or just made to look a poor team by Alabama?
• USC at Syracuse - Are USC going to be contenders for the national championship as expected?
• Oklahoma State at Arizona - another 84 points?
• On a personal note, I'm off to the Paralympics for the day on Saturday. Even though it means I won't get to see much of this weeks College Football I'm really looking forward to it.

Rankings - an American sporting quirk?

One of the things that puzzled me most when I started watching College Football was how some teams wouldn't be called by their name but would have a number attached. For example, Florida were 'Number 1 Florida' or Michigan would be 'Number 22 Michigan'. But then most of the teams didn't have a number. Why was this? This lead me into the peculiar and very American world of rankings.

It's something that doesn't really get used in the rest of the world because they all play what would be called in the US a 'balanced schedule'. Take the Premier League for example, every team plays each other twice, once at home and once away. Every team plays the same schedule and so it is clear who is the best at the end of the season.

In American sports, however, there is an unbalanced schedule in all sports. As a result it's not always obvious who the best team is and so there are the rankings as an attempt to decide it. Unfortunately (to me at least) these are very subjective. They are often a vote as to who's the best team and so will inevitably be influenced by the biases of the voters.

In College Football we have had just a single game and already the rankings have been released by AP (see here) but this is on top of pre-season rankings. How can any conclusions be reached after a single game is difficult to work out.

But for me the biggest problem is that at the end of the season, the rankings will basically match the records of the teams, with ties decided by the perceived strength of the conference they are from. This discourages teams from playing difficult opponents out of conference as a single loss can see them fall in the rankings even if they were expected to lose. Take the fate of Michigan this week for example. In the pre-season poll they were ranked 8th, and their opponents Alabama 2nd. So according to the polls they should have lost, which they did, suggesting the poll was right. But in this weeks poll after the game they have fallen to 19th, punishing them for scheduling a tough game.

So if the rankings will just reflect the records, why use them? And is there a better way? Personally I think there is and that's to take the subjective voting element out. The official BCS rankings include a computer based ranking. I would use something like this. And there is a precedent for this that is used in the UEFA Champions League.

The UEFA coefficient is a ranking system used for two main purposes. Firstly to decide how many teams from each country enter the Champions League, then to decide on seedings for the individual teams (but not for deciding the winner in this case). The system is open and relatively simple. Teams get points for winning games, and for progressing through the competitions. Everything is open. Of course there is some arbitrariness about the exact details of the formula but it has been running for some time now. Could College Football use something similar for the rankings?

A few thoughts on week 1

• Alabama look impressive. I'll be very surprised if they aren't top 10 at the end of the season
• I've never been convinced by Denard Robinson. There's clearly a lot of talent and he is capable of extraordinary things but there's something missing. I think he is lacking some of those intangibles that make the difference between a very talented player and a winner.
• The win for Clemson over Auburn was not just big for them, but big for the ACC. The ACC has struggled to get attention at the top of the rankings and had Clemson lost, all the ACC would have suffered as many would just have concluded that the ACC's best wasn't as good as an average SEC team.
• No major shocks among the big teams but many premature conclusions will be drawn on the basis of one game.
• How many points did Oklahoma State score?
• The Notre Dame - Navy game in Dublin was a sell-out so on that basis was a success. But 35,000 out of the 48,000 crowd had come over from the US which means its unclear how much the locals were interested in the game. That said, with that many travelling then further one-off games by other teams must be possible.

Early contender for stupid play of the year

Viewers Choice on ESPN America

Saturday evenings game on ESPN America (at 8.30pm) is a viewers choice between

• Miami at Boston College
• Southern Miss at Nebraska
• Bowling Green at Florida

Not sure what the best game is here but you can vote here

There's a good schedule the rest of the day:

• 2pm - Navy at Notre Dame
• 5pm - Ohio at Penn State
• 1am - Alabama at Michigan

Week 1 - Things I'm interested in

1. Navy at Notre Dame - For me, the interesting thing here is not what happens on the field but what happens off it. The game is being played in Dublin, Ireland. The NFL has been playing a game each year in London at Wembley Stadium. I went to last years Bears-Bucs game and the crowd was an interesting mix. There were plenty of people from all over Briton there (I was sat next to a guy who'd come down from Aberdeen in the north of Scotland) but there were also plenty of Americans and Europeans there. So who will be in the crowd for this? And if this is successful in attracting plenty of locals to the game, could this be repeated in future with more regular season games played outside the USA, or perhaps in the long term - a bowl game?

2. Alabama at Michigan - This for me is the game of the week. Can Alabama repeat? Are Michigan going to challenge for the national championship? And it's an early test of the relative strengths of the SEC and Big Ten.

3. Auburn at Clemson - Another big inter-conference game. This time SEC vs ACC. This could have repercussions for the future rankings of all ACC teams. If Clemson win, then they'll get a boost. If not, then the ACC could struggle to get attention in the national championship debate.

4. Boise State at Michigan State - Boise have been close for several years now but have lost several senior players such as Kellen Moore, who was underrated in the NFL draft in my opinion. Will they still be competitive with the big teams?

5. Ohio at Penn State - This is another game more interesting for what happens off the field. After all that's happened in the last year, how will Penn State move forward? They will need to do this soon, without forgetting what happened or the victims.

It's all Tim Tebow's Fault....(or how I became a College Football Fan)

I'm a College Football fan living in Birmingham. Nothing unusual in that except this is Birmingham in England, not Alabama. This is the story of how I became a fan.

One Saturday evening in September 2009 I was bored. I was waiting for a film to start on TV, and so stated channel hopping, looking for something to watch in the meantime. During this I stumbled across a college football game on ESPN America and gave it a few minutes. Those few minutes were enough to get my attention because of one player - Tim Tebow. It was clear that he wasn't a typical Quarterback that I remembered from watching the NFL over the years and it was this that initially interested me.

When I was growing up I'd watched Channel 4's coverage of the NFL during the 80's. As I grew up, then left home to go to University in the early 90's this continued. But then, partly due to changes in my own life and partly due to Channel 4 messing about with and then dropping it's coverage, I slowly stopped watching it regularly. By 2009 it had become something I watched occasionally.

So on this Saturday evening I knew enough about the game to recognise it was both different to the NFL and basically the same. Although to this day I'm not sure who was playing other than the Florida Gators, and I'm not sure I even knew what the result was that night as I stopped watching when the film started.

The following weekend though, I'd been interested enough by what I saw to see if there was another game on. There was (I was quickly to discover ESPN America shows at least 2 or 3 every Saturday, with re-runs of others on Sunday) and again it was a Florida Gators game. So I watched for a while. And found myself on the internet after the game trying to find out more about college football.

Over the next few weeks I found myself drawn into it more and more, to the point where I cancelled a night out to stay in and watch the SEC Championship game between Florida and Alabama at the end of the season. Since then I've been watching it regularly, usually 2 or 3 games each weekend. And all because in a moment of boredom I put it on while Tim Tebow was playing.